Rate Lock Advisory Sunday, November 2nd This week has four monthly economic reports that are not affected by the ongoing government shutdown. There are also a large number of Fed-member speeches and a slew of corporate earnings releases that may influence the financial markets during the week. --- Bonds Market Closed --- Dow Market Closed --- NASDAQ Market Closed Mortgage Rate Trend Trailing 90 Days - National Average 30 Year Fixed 15 Year Fixed 5/1 ARM Indexes Affecting Rate Lock HighUnknownISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)Activities will begin late tomorrow morning when October's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is released. This is part of the traditional new month batch of reports that are usually posted the first week of each month. The index measures sentiment about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's report is expected to show a reading of 49.4, up a little from September's 49.1. A reading below 50 is considered a recessionary sign of weakness in the sector. Therefore, smaller than expected reading would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates. MediumUnknownFed TalkNow that the FOMC meeting is behind us, the Fed speaking calendar is heating up. This week has many speeches scheduled, but two particular that list subjects related to the economy and/or monetary policy tomorrow and Tuesday should draw plenty of attention. Chairman Powell’s comments during his post-FOMC press conference last week raised the possibility that the Fed may not cut key rates at their December meeting. Some of this week’s speaking events could give individual opinions on the topic. Bond traders will be listening closely for any hints. HighUnknownADP EmploymentWednesday has two reports that we will be watching, starting with the ADP private-sector employment report at 8:15 AM. The release is expected to show 25,000 new non-governmental jobs were added to the economy in October after a decline of 32,000 in September. The shutdown has prevented the release of both September and October’s Employment report from the government, meaning this version will take on more importance than it usually does. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be another decline in payrolls, indicating weakness in the employment sector. MediumUnknownISM Service IndexThe Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their non-manufacturing index (aka service index) at 10:00 AM ET Wednesday. This is the sister report of tomorrow's ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 50.9 for October, up from September's 50.0 to signal stronger activity in the sector. Bad news for rates would be a larger increase since it would be a sign of economic strength. MediumUnknownUniv of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is the week's final relevant release. It is set to be posted at 10:00 AM ET Friday. The index gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend by surveying consumers about confidence in their own financial situations. It is expected to show a reading of 54.0, up from October's final reading of 53.6. Favorable news for bonds would be a noticeably lower reading because waning sentiment means consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations and are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. With consumer spending making up over two-thirds of our economy, any related data is watched closely. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage shoppers. ---UnknownnoneOverall, Wednesday looks to be the most important day for mortgage rates due to the two economic releases, but tomorrow’s ISM release can also cause a noticeable move in rates. The calmest day may be Thursday unless something unexpected happens. It would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future because they may get active without notice. Float / Lock Recommendation If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.
This week has four monthly economic reports that are not affected by the ongoing government shutdown. There are also a large number of Fed-member speeches and a slew of corporate earnings releases that may influence the financial markets during the week. --- Bonds Market Closed --- Dow Market Closed --- NASDAQ Market Closed
Indexes Affecting Rate Lock HighUnknownISM Index (Institute for Supply Management)Activities will begin late tomorrow morning when October's manufacturing index from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) is released. This is part of the traditional new month batch of reports that are usually posted the first week of each month. The index measures sentiment about business conditions in the manufacturing sector. Tomorrow's report is expected to show a reading of 49.4, up a little from September's 49.1. A reading below 50 is considered a recessionary sign of weakness in the sector. Therefore, smaller than expected reading would be good news for bonds and mortgage rates. MediumUnknownFed TalkNow that the FOMC meeting is behind us, the Fed speaking calendar is heating up. This week has many speeches scheduled, but two particular that list subjects related to the economy and/or monetary policy tomorrow and Tuesday should draw plenty of attention. Chairman Powell’s comments during his post-FOMC press conference last week raised the possibility that the Fed may not cut key rates at their December meeting. Some of this week’s speaking events could give individual opinions on the topic. Bond traders will be listening closely for any hints. HighUnknownADP EmploymentWednesday has two reports that we will be watching, starting with the ADP private-sector employment report at 8:15 AM. The release is expected to show 25,000 new non-governmental jobs were added to the economy in October after a decline of 32,000 in September. The shutdown has prevented the release of both September and October’s Employment report from the government, meaning this version will take on more importance than it usually does. Good news for the bond market and mortgage rates would be another decline in payrolls, indicating weakness in the employment sector. MediumUnknownISM Service IndexThe Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release their non-manufacturing index (aka service index) at 10:00 AM ET Wednesday. This is the sister report of tomorrow's ISM manufacturing index with this version tracking business executive opinions on conditions in the service sector rather than manufacturing. It is expected to show a reading of 50.9 for October, up from September's 50.0 to signal stronger activity in the sector. Bad news for rates would be a larger increase since it would be a sign of economic strength. MediumUnknownUniv of Mich Consumer Sentiment (Prelim)November's preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment is the week's final relevant release. It is set to be posted at 10:00 AM ET Friday. The index gives us an indication of consumer willingness to spend by surveying consumers about confidence in their own financial situations. It is expected to show a reading of 54.0, up from October's final reading of 53.6. Favorable news for bonds would be a noticeably lower reading because waning sentiment means consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations and are less likely to make large purchases in the near future. With consumer spending making up over two-thirds of our economy, any related data is watched closely. The lower the reading, the better the news for mortgage shoppers. ---UnknownnoneOverall, Wednesday looks to be the most important day for mortgage rates due to the two economic releases, but tomorrow’s ISM release can also cause a noticeable move in rates. The calmest day may be Thursday unless something unexpected happens. It would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future because they may get active without notice.
Float / Lock Recommendation If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.